Flickr not even on the medal podium?...so says LeeAnn Prescott

Wow...just yesterday Zoli had me thinking that first mover advantage isn't necessarily a major function of ultimate success as new market entrants build off the first mover's early work.

Then today, LeeAnn Prescott of Hitwise blogs an astoundingly surprising analysis of the photo-sharing market and current market share metrics. [note: Paul Kedrosky's reference led me to LeeAnn's original post]. Like LeeAnn, I've been conditioned by my own personal use and the blogosphere to think that Flickr is at least in the mix for dominance of this market. Yet, the current reality suggests another thing entirely.

   

LeeAnn goes on to say that Photobucket has gained more than 30% market share this year (overtaking Yahoo as the top dog in January) and much of its success is a byproduct of social networking sites like MySpace.

While I'm surprised by the magnitude of Photobucket's dominance, it would be unfair to paint them as a company that hasn't gotten its fair share of attention from conventional media and the blogosphere alike:

• They've been TechCrunched (Twice)
• Red Herring discussed their $10.5mm raise
• The Journal wrote them up

But I'm just as fascinated by Photobucket's success as I am Flickr's relatively uninspiring place at the table. I have no idea how these share numbers have trended, but if someone had put a gun to my head there is no way I would've suggested a) that Flickr was 6th in the category or b) that Flickr had less than 6% market share. To those of you with some historical context, has Flickr been trending up but at a slower pace than the pure hosting sites? Or did they peak and are now seeing share degradations?

Let me be clear on one other thing, I have no idea what the business models of each of these photo-sharing sites looks like. There are significant infrastructure costs associated with scaling this type of model, and I'm sure some of these sites are ad-supported, some sell ancillary services (e.g., adding frames or turning photos into labels and calendars), while others are part of a larger service offering (i.e., a loss leader). So while Flickr and Photobucket's rankings don't necessarily speak to the merits of their respective business models, it does make one wonder about "first mover" in the startup world versus "innovator's dilemma."

photobucket flickr leeannprescott hitwise photosharing innovation woodrow