Yet again, Microsoft announced a delay in the shipment date for Vista. In classic "let's see how deeply we can insult their intelligence" fashion, Microsoft tried to spin the news positively:
Microsoft Corp. today confirmed that Windows Vista™, the next generation of the Windows® client operating system, is on target to go into broad consumer beta to approximately 2 million users in the second quarter of 2006. Microsoft is on track to complete the product this year, with business availability in November 2006 and broad consumer availability in January 2007.
I'm sure Microsoft's partners, particularly the PC makers, are thrilled to hear that Vista won't ship until after the key holiday season. And as for we investors? Well, we now get another calendar year of patient waiting for Microsoft's most important growth engine in a half decade.
As you can imagine, there are approximately 42 million opinions on the delay floating around the blogosphere tonight, many of which can be found at tech.meme.
Tom Sanders wonders who's to blame?
So who's to blame? Windows boss Jim Allchin during a conference call was walking on egg shells, but after being peppered with questions, he finally gave in. Microsoft needed "just a few more weeks" for unspecified quality reasons. That in turn pushed manufacturers over the edge, who claimed that they would be unable to have Vista systems in the market in 2006.
Joe Wilcox wonders about the fuzzy math...
During today's conference call, Windows head honcho Jim Allchin described the problem as just a few weeks, which apparently would be a few weeks too long for PC partners to get computers to market for the holidays. I can't rationalize Microsoft's reasoning. Windows XP released to manufacturing in August 2001 and launched in late October. That's what it takes to hit the holiday sales cycle. PC manufacturers typically need at least six to eight weeks more to get Windows on new PCs. Some manufacturers need even longer.
It's a couple months from November, when Microsoft says Windows Vista will be ready for some business customers, to January, when the software is available to consumers and on new PCs. Backtracking, by my reckoning, Microsoft expects to finish Windows Vista in late October or early November. Even with a few weeks consideration, I don't see how there ever would have been enough time for PC manufacturers to get Windows Vista on new systems or for Microsoft to hold a massive launch event with lots of marketing.
Here's my real issue with Microsoft...they're forgetting where their bread is buttered. Sure, things like a portable XBox 360, Origami, Live.com, SSE, and classified lists are interesting. But not when the company's most important product release, and the key to the company's attractiveness as an investment vehicle in the next 24 months, is being delayed...AGAIN.
Note: At the time of this writing I, and/or funds I maintain discretionary control over, maintained a long equity position in MSFT.
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