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JasonC

Regarding the consolidation strategy, I'm still iffy on the degree to which it is working. On the earnings side, it looks like so far so good. On the revenue side Oracle reports a 32% gain in application new license revenue for the year, versus SAP's 10%.

That's a nice number. However, Oracle is increasing market share, but not growing it. I think the distinction is important. Here is what I mean. If you look at Oracle, Hyperion, Siebel, Retek, and PeopleSoft as though they were a combined entity for all of the last two years, the collective license revenue of that group is up about 7%, not 32%. Depending on which analyst datapoint you use, that growth rate is basically just keeping up with market growth. In other words, Oracle is not gaining additional momentum from the acquisitions, at least not in terms of new application license revenue. They have been successful at hanging on to customers and not losing share on this measure, but this is a case of one plus one being two, not three or more.

They set expectations for 20-30% license revenue growth next quarter, which I understand to be across both database and applications. On the apps side they better be better than 20% growth. By my estimation they'll gain about 24% inorganic growth from Hyperion and Agile.

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